Looking to leverage ‘super sensory hamster powers’, the ProjectionMarket team formed to help people predict future behaviors at Charlotte Startup Weekend.
As of Saturday they were building a web solution at ProjectionMarket.com that will help companies, groups, even politicians (yes there just might be help for politicians too!). They hope to give people the power to harness the more accurate predictive capabilities of Prediction Markets. I’m not an economist myself (nor a psychohistorian) but the general idea is that polling has several inherent flaws including the fact that everyone participated is treated equally. However, in a real market not all players are equal. Those that do not know what they are buying, may not actually buy something. Those in the know, might be informed enough to actually complete a purchase.
With that in mind, it doesn’t make sense to give these two groups equal clout in a poll on whether or not they would buy, or what they would buy. But in a prediction market you would focus on the informed part of the market to develop a better sense of what other informed individuals or groups in a larger sample might do. This is a deep group with a big idea that is definitely having a lot of fun this weekend, fun Isaac Asimov references aside, I keep asking myself “What would Goldman Sachs do?”
How will it work? People will feed a question into ProjectionMarket.com and they will get an answer back after the cloud of respondents participating in the markets work through the scenario.